We are seeing longer spells of intense heat broken by bursts of intense rain. Dry, baked ground can't soak up a sudden downpour, so water races off fields and into rivers and roads instead of seeping into the soil and the chalk aquifers beneath. Shifts in global weather patterns, such as the building Super El Niño and the disturbances to weather that surround it ripple out to the UK too, making those swings harder to predict.
So, the question isn't just "how much rain do we get?" It's "how do we hold on to it when it comes, and let it go slowly?"